Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical (600835): Leading companies in the elevator industry will benefit from retrofitting of old communities
Event: Since 2019, the installation of elevators in existing multi-storey residential buildings in Shanghai has increased.
According to relevant media reports, in the first half of this year, a total of 331 buildings in Shanghai completed the installation of elevators, exceeding the total of previous years.
Relevant person in charge said that it will continue to adjust and relax the cloud of the start gate, cancel the “one-vote veto” clause, and promote the establishment of elevators in old districts in all districts of Shanghai this year.
Opinion: Steady and far-reaching, leading enterprises in the elevator industry operate steadily.
The company’s business involves the seven major fields of elevator manufacturing, refrigeration and air-conditioning equipment manufacturing, printing and packaging machinery manufacturing, welding equipment manufacturing, contract energy efficiency management, wood-based panel machine manufacturing, and engineering machinery manufacturing. It has been established with the world-renowned multinational companies such as the United States, Japan, and France.Joint venture, the company controls Shanghai Mitsubishi Elevator (52%), Shanghai Electric Group Printing and Packaging Machinery Co., Ltd. (100%), Shanghai Electric Group General Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Equipment Co., Ltd. (100%), shares in Shanghai Jintai Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. (49%), Shanghai ABB Motor, etc.
The company achieved operating revenue of 21.2 billion in 2018, a year-on-year increase of 9.
05%, among which elevator, printing and packaging, welding materials, hydraulic machinery, energy engineering are 198 respectively.
68%), and the elevator business accounted for 93%.
71%, net profit attributable to mother reached 12.
68 ppm, a reduction of 8 per year.
76%, of which Shanghai Mitsubishi Elevator achieved 17.
Net profit of 600 million yuan, according to 52% of equity, reached 9.
Elevator sales benefit from the completion cycle of real estate.
In the first half of 2019, elevator output increased by 18% annually, benefiting from the completion of real estate.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the elevator output reached 46 in the first six months of 2019.
30,000 units, an increase of 18% a year, reaching 100,000 units in a single month in June, a year-on-year increase of 19%, mainly driven by the completion of real estate, real estate completion and new starts continue to recede, and gradually evolve in the future.Improved recovery.
From the situation of each elevator company, there is obvious differentiation. We believe that the concentration of transforming real estate companies will increase, and the reshuffle of the real estate industry will intensify in the second half of the year. In the future, the new elevator market will continue to present a stronger and stronger layout.
The recent policy of installing elevators is expected to continue to exceed expectations.
Recently, it was rumored that Shanghai will cancel the “one-vote veto” system for elevator installation and relax the information on elevator door installation: In the first half of 2019, a total of 331 buildings in Shanghai completed the elevator installation plan, exceeding the total of previous years.
At the same time, the relevant person in charge stated that he would continue to adjust and relax the biology of the starter door and cancel the “one-vote veto” clause. During the development year, old districts in all districts of Shanghai will implement elevator installation projects.
We believe that the installation of elevators in old communities is one of the important national shortcomings. This year, it has been repeatedly held in important national conferences (political bureau meetings, government work reports of the two sessions). The document states that future policies are expected to continue to exceed expectations. It is expected thatIn the “one-vote veto power”, compensation amount, compensation period and other aspects will be more clear policies are introduced to promote the rapid development of the industry.
According to the China Association for the Promotion of the Press for the Disabled, there are 170,000 old communities in Kaiti, with a potential demand of 5 million retrofit elevators. In 2018, the output of elevators was 850,000, and the number of 佛山桑拿网 retrofit installations in the country in 2018 was only over 1,000.It is expected to reach 2-3 million units in 19 years, and has a very large explosive potential.
Profitability forecast and estimation.
We are optimistic about the company’s industry leader level. In the future, with the promotion of policies, the installed elevator market will develop and the company is expected to achieve steady growth. We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company will be 13 in 19-21.
22 billion, 14.
56 billion, 16.
1.4 billion, currently expected to correspond to 15, 14, 12 times the PE, for the first time coverage, given an overweight rating.
Risk reminder: The real estate start-up is significantly replaced; the old renovation and the installation of elevators are less than expected.