Taoli Bread (603866) Company dynamic comment: short-term performance growth continues long-term national expansion

Taoli Bread (603866) Company dynamic comment: short-term performance growth continues long-term national expansion

Matters: Taoli Bread released the third quarter report of 19, and achieved operating income of 1-3Q19.

200 million, an increase of 17% in ten years;

30,000 yuan, an increase of 8 in ten years.

7%; budget benefit 0.

76 yuan.

It is estimated that the company achieved operating income of 15 in 3Q19.

6 trillion, an increase of 15 in ten years.

2%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

9.9 billion, down by 0 a year.

24%; budget benefit 0.

3 yuan.

Investment Highlights: 3Q19 performance exceeded expectations.

In the third quarter of 19, the net profit was downgraded for ten years.

24%, mainly from the increase in sales expense ratio1.

5 points.

  The company’s revenue has maintained steady growth.

Taoli 3Q19 revenue increased by 15.

2%, maintaining a steady growth. The increase in revenue was mainly due to the production of moon cakes during the Mid-Autumn Festival, and part of the production capacity of bread production.

In terms of markets: (1) Under the continuous channel sinking and increasing purchase frequency of consumers, mature markets have maintained steady growth. The growth rate in the Northeast region is still more than two.The above; (2) The new market has grown rapidly, with the growth rate in southern China reaching nearly 30%, and the revenue growth rate in eastern China exceeding approximately 20%.

In the future, the construction of a new factory will be completed, the production capacity will be released, and the sales outlets will be well-organized. Taoli’s revenue will continue to grow steadily.

  The decrease in net profit was mainly due to the increase in the sales expense ratio, and a large amount of investment costs were still required during the nationwide layout.

  Gross profit margin for the third quarter of 19 was 39.

6%, an increase of 0 a year.

2pct.

The third quarter of 19 net profit level 0.

24%, the main reason is that the sales expense rate increases by 1 per second.

5pct to 20.

9%.

The main reasons for the increase in the sales expense ratio are: (1) breakthrough in the mooncake expenses during the Mid-Autumn Festival; (2) the development of East China, the South China region still needs to pay the freight and store entry costs.

At present, there are more than 30 value-added dealers in East China to 110. During the nationwide deployment, it is still necessary to pay for new markets and build teams.

It is expected that during the 19-year race, the cost of Taoli will remain high, and the net profit growth rate is about 10-13%.

  Issuing convertible bonds to improve the production capacity layout and continue to promote the national strategy.

Taoli issues convertible bonds to build production bases in Jiangsu, Sichuan, Qingdao, and Zhejiang. Its production capacity in East China and Southwest China can be further improved.

In the future, Wuhan, Shandong and other factories will be put into production in succession, and the company’s throughput in East China is expected to improve. Through Tianjin and Dongguan, production capacity is gradually increased, production efficiency can be enhanced, and production pressure in North China can be eased.

In addition, the company continuously develops channels in new markets and intensive cultivation in mature markets. At present, some core regional channels have sunk to the town and county levels.

At present, the number of Tao Li dealers has increased to 47 to 646.

Perfecting the production capacity layout and further optimizing the terminal sales network. Advantages Taoli’s promotion of a national strategy and horse race enclosure can support its long-term stable 杭州夜生活网 and sustained growth.

  Profit forecast and investment advice: EPS are expected to be 1 in 19-21.08, 1.

32, 1.

63 yuan, an increase of 10 in ten years.

5%, 22.

3%, 23.

9%, the PE corresponding to the latest closing price is 42, 34, 28 times.

The short-term insurance leader Taoli has significant scale advantages, strong channel penetration, and efficient logistics. It is still in the golden period under national expansion.

Risk warning: Nationalization is not up to expectations, risks of rising raw material prices, food safety incidents.

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