Golden Mantis (002081) Company Research: Q4 Revenue and Profit Accelerated Growth Estimated to be Very Low and Cost-Effective

Golden Mantis (002081) Company Research: Q4 Revenue and Profit Accelerated Growth Estimated to be Very Low and Cost-Effective
The 12% growth in performance in 2019 was in line with expectations, and Q4 revenue and earnings growth accelerated.The company released a quick performance report for 2019 and achieved revenue of 308.500 million, an annual increase of 23%; net profit attributable to mothers23.700 million, an annual increase of 12%, the absolute amount of revenue and performance reached a record high, demonstrating the steady growth of the decoration leader.By quarter, 2019Q1-4 achieved revenue of 60 respectively.6/77.4/89.5/81.100 million US dollars, an annual increase of 20% / 33% / 17% / 24%; net profit attributable to mothers respectively6.0/5.1/6.4/6.US $ 200 million, a year-on-year increase of 9% / 16% / 8% / 16%. In the fourth quarter, single-quarter revenue and performance growth significantly accelerated.It is expected that through the continuous conversion of the company’s previous traditional public order, the profitability of the home improvement business will improve, and 2020 will gradually continue to grow steadily.  We will increase our commitment to conventional and traditional clothing business in order to achieve stable and sustainable development.The company’s new single-screw 442 in 2019.US $ 300 million, a steady growth of 13% each year, of which new public order / residential / design orders were 249.6/165.0/27.700 million, a growth of 17% / 6% / 20% in ten years.Q4 single season company new long-term single 108.0 ppm, an increase of 1% in ten years, of which the new public installation / residential / design orders were 64.0/38.4/5.6 million US dollars, with a gradual change of +21% /-21% /-7%. It is expected that the company’s Q4 marketing strategy will be adjusted to enhance the project public profit and better repayment conditions for traditional public service business.Some real estate projects with poor repayment conditions were introduced.As of the end of 2019, the company has signed 669 outstanding work orders in hand.800 million US dollars, an increase of 17% / 4% per year / month, about 18 years of income2.Seven times, excess orders are expected to continue to transform into revenue, and promote sustained and steady growth in performance.  The real estate policy is loosening due to the city, and the financing environment is improved, which promotes the rapid restoration of the leading real estate chain.The current epidemic has caused significant pressure on economic growth this year. After the epidemic is under control, the steady growth of investment will most likely become a continuous and important policy goal. It is expected that real estate construction and completion this year will maintain a rapid growth rate.The pursuit of growth accelerates.At the same time, it is expected that the real estate policy will be loosened, because the city’s policy will be more flexible, and the financing environment for housing companies will improve.Under this circumstance, the fundamentals of the real estate chain are expected to usher in support, and policy improvements are expected to continue to increase, which will help the 北京桑拿洗浴保健 leading real estate chain to achieve steady growth in revenue performance while recovering in advance.  Investment advice: Excellent cash flow, extremely low estimated and higher allocation costs.Since 2011, the company’s net operating cash flow has been negative only in 2014, and the overall cash flow situation is good. The cash-to-cash ratio in the past four years is also in the upstream of the industry, and the ability to recover funds continues to be excellent.The company’s current PE (TTM) / PB (LF) are 10 respectively.3/1.7 times; the ratios to CSI 300PE / PB are 0 respectively.84/1.09, it is estimated to be at a very low level in history, and the configuration is cost-effective.We forecast the company’s net profit attributable to its mothers to be 23 in 2019-2021.7/26.9/30.50,000 yuan, an increase of 12% / 14% / 13% in ten years, the corresponding EPS is 0.88/1.00/1.14 yuan (CAGR of 13% in 18-21), the current corresponding PE is 10/9/8 times respectively, maintaining the “Buy” rating.  Risk warning: real estate policy assesses risks, public order orders further increase risks, home improvement business expansion is less than expected risks, and risks of rapid growth of raw material and labor costs.

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