Funds or flow to safe-haven asset funds bullish on gold allocation value

Funds or flow to safe-haven asset funds bullish on gold allocation value
Reporter Jin Pingping ○ Editor Wu Xiaojing has experienced shock adjustment since late February, and the international gold price is currently fluctuating below the $ 1,320 / throughout mark.Although the gold market may still face short-term adjustments from the perspective of capital flow, some people believe that the current value of energy storage or for subsequent growth, from the medium and long-term perspective, the value of gold allocation is prominent.  The Fed’s “Dove Voice” released by the interest rate meeting is very obvious-most Fed officials expect this year’s rate hikes to be replaced by zero; meanwhile, the Fed plans to end its plan to shrink its balance sheet in September this year.In addition, the Fed also lowered its forecast for economic growth this year and next.  In fact, after the Federal Reserve issued a statement, 深圳桑拿网 the Dow Jones index and the S & P 500 index of the US stocks rebounded, but eventually closed down in the end, and the spot gold price in London maintained a slight rebound trend.From the market reaction point of view, the Fed ‘s dovish attitude is slightly higher than investors ‘expectations, but investors’ concerns about the economic outlook have become more and more serious, causing US stocks to fall in late trading.  ”Economic fundamentals, US data has begun to show weak indicators, and stopping interest rate hikes is just a confirmation of the economic downturn.”Xie Yi, manager of Qianhai Open Source Fund, said that the US interest rate cycle has begun to turn around, and gold assets are expected to break through.  Huaan Fund also said that the Fed’s end of its plan to 四川逍遥网 reduce its balance sheet will boost the marginal liquidity of the currency in the next few months. It is expected that the real interest rate will continue to fall. As a result, the US dollar will be negative and financial assets will be positive.At the same time, an improvement in the outlook for the US economic outlook will curb the assessment of risky assets and benefit gold for safe-haven assets.  From the perspective of capital flow, due to the rapid return of previous funds to the gold market, gold long futures positions and net long positions have continued to grow, and have driven the international gold price to continue to rebound in the initial stage.According to the observation of Tang Xiangbin, an analyst at the Financial Market Department of Minsheng Bank, the short-term funds have recently shifted, and both the CFTC gold futures long and net long positions have turned down.He expects that the upward adjustment of capital flow will ease the short-term gold overbought situation.  According to World Gold Association statistics, in February this year, after recording net net inflows for four consecutive months, the global gold ETF and similar products’ gold holdings decreased by 33 tons, replacing 2479 tons, which is equivalent to $ 1.3 billion in funds.  Tang Xiangbin believes that given the changes in the global capital flow in gold allocation, short-term international gold prices are expected to wait for the end of the adjustment through shocks.”This means that the international gold price will continue to rise under the support of macro factors after the adjustment.The short-term international gold price support position is near $ 1280 per inch, and the length position is near $ 1340 per inch.”He analyzed.  In terms of large-scale asset indicators, Xie Li is cautious about overseas risk assets: “The equity and commodity markets will continue to be weak. The current rebound in U.S. stocks may soon end, and subsequent declines may exceed market expectations.The gold-based asset may be the first to benefit, because fundamentals and monetary policy have shifted in favor of gold.”

Post navigation